Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. Common Stock (BAER)

FairStock Score: 17/100 — RISKY

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

Bridger Aerospace is not a business I can underwrite on hope. The filed record shows real growth: revenue rose from $66.7M in fiscal year 2023 (period ended 2023-12-31) to $98.6M in fiscal year 2024 (period ended 2024-12-31) to $122.8M in fiscal year 2025 (period ended 2025-12-31), while net income improved from -$77.4M to -$15.6M to $4.1M. That is a genuine turnaround, and FairStock labels it a TURNAROUND because it returned to profit after a loss within the last three years. But the quality is thin. Fiscal Q3 2025 (period ended 2025-09-30) produced $67.9M of revenue and $34.5M of net income, showing seasonality, yet fiscal Q1 2026 (period ended 2026-03-31) lost $31.3M and fiscal Q2 2026 (period ended 2026-06-30) lost $498,000. Free cash flow in the trailing twelve months was -$90.5M, a -274.6% FCF yield against the $32.9M market cap at the 2026-10-13 close, by FairStock's calculation. Debt is heavy: D/E 7.81 and an Altman Z-Score of -1.70. The Piotroski F-Score is 4/9, ROE is -32.42%, and the FairStock Score is 17/100. At $0.56, the P/E is -0.79 and EV/EBITDA is 10.54, but negative earnings and cash burn make those multiples unreliable. The company has specialized aircraft and seasonal wildfire demand, but I see little durable competitive moat and no margin of safety. Until cash flow turns positive and debt falls, this looks more like a speculative turnaround than a Graham bargain.

In plain English: Bridger Aerospace uses aircraft to watch and fight wildfires. The business has grown revenue and recently turned a small annual profit, but it is losing money in some quarters and burning a lot of cash. At $0.56, the price looks very low, but weak cash flow and losses make it hard to call it cheap.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer