AeroVironment Inc. Common Stock (AVAV)

FairStock Score: 40/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

Mr. Market has taken AeroVironment from $408.25 to $127.13, and that volatility should make a Graham-style investor pause. The company sells uncrewed aircraft, counter-UAS systems and related defense technology, mostly to government agencies. That can be a durable niche, but the filed numbers show a business in transition. In fiscal 2026, the year ended 2026-04-30, revenue was $2.0B, up from $820.6M in fiscal 2025, the year ended 2025-04-30, yet net income swung from a $43.6M profit to a $265.1M loss, with diluted EPS of -$5.40. In fiscal Q1 2027, the quarter ended 2026-08-01, revenue was $480.5M and net loss was $5.1M, or -$0.10 per share. That is much better than fiscal Q3 2026, the quarter ended 2026-01-31, when revenue was $408.0M and net loss was $156.6M, but it is still a loss. Free cash flow is -$44.8M, and the FairStock FCF yield is -0.7%. The balance sheet shows D/E of 0.19 and Altman Z-score of 3.28, but Piotroski is only 3/9 and ROE is -4.60%, so quality is mixed. At the close on 2026-10-13, price was $127.13, market cap $6.5B, P/B 1.46, and P/E negative. FairStock score is 40/100. Peter Lynch's computed category is TURNAROUND - loss in the latest year after earlier profits. I see potential defense demand, but no earnings-based margin of safety and no free cash flow. For Graham, earnings stability is absent. For Buffett, the business must prove it can earn high returns on capital and convert revenue into cash. Until then, this is a speculation on a turnaround, not a proven bargain.

In plain English: AeroVironment makes robotic defense systems, including small drones, counter-drone equipment, and related software for government customers. The business has grown sales, but it is currently losing money and burning cash, so its finances look weak despite a specialized defense niche. At $127.13, the price is far below its 52-week high, but because earnings are negative it is hard to call the stock clearly cheap; it looks more like an uncertain turnaround.

The full AI analysis, bull and bear case and key monitorables are in FairStock Pro.

Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q1 2027 10-Q (period ended 2026-08-01) · fiscal Q3 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-01-31) · fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2025-11-01) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2025-08-02) · FY2026 10-K (period ended 2026-04-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-04-30) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-04-30)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer