Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. Common Stock (AVAH)

FairStock Score: 85/100 — HIGH CONVICTION

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I approach Aveanna as a home-care platform: pediatric and adult services delivered in the home, through Private Duty Services, Home Health & Hospice, and Medical Solutions. The turnaround is real. In FY2025, revenue was $2.4B and net income was $225.0M, or diluted EPS of $1.05, versus FY2024 revenue of $2.0B and a net loss of $10.9M, or diluted EPS of $-0.06. In fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-07-04, revenue was $670.5M, net income $40.3M, and diluted EPS $0.18, compared with revenue $589.6M, net income $27.0M, and diluted EPS $0.13 in fiscal Q2 2025. That is progress. Free cash flow is $158.4M, a 6.0% FCF yield. But I have to weigh the balance sheet. Debt-to-equity is 5.23, and the Altman Z-Score of 0.65 suggests distress risk. The Piotroski F-Score is 5/9, not a fortress. ROE of 198.57% is flattered by thin equity and leverage, not a sign of a wide moat. ROCE is 9.69%. The home-care industry is fragmented and reimbursement-driven; scale helps, but pricing power is limited. Valuation is the tension: at the 2026-10-13 close of $12.18, market cap is $2.7B. FairStock shows P/E 9.67, P/B 9.23, EV/EBITDA 13.27, and a Graham Number of $6.12, implying a margin of safety of -99.02%. The PEG of 0.01 reflects explosive profit recovery, not durable growth. Beta of 1.97 means volatility. The Lynch category is TURNAROUND—returned to profit after a loss within the last three years. I see improving operations, but the price already asks me to trust the recovery while debt remains heavy. As Graham would say, the margin of safety is absent.

In plain English: Aveanna Healthcare provides home-based medical care for children and adults, with nursing, therapy, and related services. The company has swung back to profit and is generating cash, but it carries a very heavy debt load. At the recent price, the stock looks expensive compared with the company's net assets and conservative value measures, even though profits are improving.

The full AI analysis, bull and bear case and key monitorables are in FairStock Pro.

Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-07-04) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-04-04) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-27) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-28) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2026-01-03) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-28) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-30)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer