AST SpaceMobile Inc. Class A Common Stock (ASTS)

FairStock Score: 29/100 — RISKY

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

As a value investor in the Graham and Buffett tradition, I want a business whose earnings are visible and whose price offers a margin of safety. AST SpaceMobile is pursuing a direct-to-smartphone satellite network, a promising idea, but the filed figures show a company still in the capital-consuming buildout phase. In fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $31.5 million while net income was negative $230.9 million. For fiscal year 2025, revenue was $70.9 million and net loss was $341.9 million. Those are not the earnings of a mature franchise; they are the costs of an unproven network. FairStock's negative P/E and 7.45 P/B at the 2026-10-13 close of $47.06 tell me the market is paying $14.1 billion for a business with tiny sales and no profits. The trailing free cash flow of negative $1.7 billion, a negative 12.3% FCF yield, and debt-to-equity of 1.25 suggest heavy external funding needs. The Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 and Altman Z-Score of 2.52 are not comforting. FairStock's Lynch rule assigns no category because the company lost money in each of the last four years. On the positive side, revenue is growing quickly from a small base: fiscal Q2 2026 revenue was $31.5 million versus $1.2 million in fiscal Q2 2025, and fiscal Q1 2026 revenue was $14.7 million. If the constellation works and commercial service scales, the addressable market could be large. But today, I see speculative future potential, not a proven moat or margin of safety.

In plain English: AST SpaceMobile is trying to build a network of satellites that let ordinary smartphones connect from space. So far the business is weak on profits: in the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $31.5 million but it lost $230.9 million, and it has been losing money for years. At the recent close of $47.06, the company is valued at $14.1 billion, which looks expensive compared with its current sales and losses.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer