Algoma Steel Group Inc. Common Shares (ASTL)

FairStock Score: 37/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I am a student of Buffett and Graham, so I begin with the business and the balance sheet, not the ticker. Algoma Steel produces flat-rolled and plate steel for automakers, tube makers, light manufacturing, and transportation, with 2,400 employees. That is a cyclical, capital-intensive commodity business. The numbers show a company under severe strain. In fiscal Q2 2026, revenue was $267.5 million and net income was -$96.0 million, a -35.89% net margin. Trailing free cash flow was -$365.4 million, and against the $475.6 million market cap, FairStock calculates an FCF yield of -76.8%. That is not a cash-generating enterprise right now. Financial health is poor. At the 2026-10-13 close of $4.29, FairStock shows P/B of 2.11, ROE of -139.13%, ROCE of -21.09%, and D/E of 3.68. Its Altman Z-Score is -0.37, deep in distress territory, and Piotroski F-Score is 4/9. The P/E of -0.58 simply reflects negative earnings. FairStock Score is 37/100, and the Lynch category is 'none' because only 0 years of filed results are available and 3 are needed. A moat? Steel is largely price-taking. There is no evidence in these figures of durable pricing power, low-cost advantage, or balance-sheet strength. Growth trajectory is negative in the latest filed quarter, with heavy losses and cash burn. The stock is near the low end of its 52-week range, but a low price alone is not value if the business is destroying capital. I would need evidence of positive free cash flow, lower leverage, and a full cycle of stable results before calling this a Graham-style bargain.

In plain English: Algoma Steel makes flat and plate steel in Canada and sells it in the U.S. and abroad. The business looks weak right now: in fiscal Q2 2026 it lost money, and it used more cash than it brought in. At the close on 2026-10-13, the $4.29 price may look low, but compared with its losses and heavy debt, it does not look clearly cheap.

The full AI analysis, bull and bear case and key monitorables are in FairStock Pro.

Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer