Astrana Health Inc. Common Stock (ASTH)

FairStock Score: 46/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

Looking at Astrana Health as a business, I see a healthcare-management operation with growing revenue but very thin and inconsistent profits. In fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $972.5 million and net income was $19.7 million — only a 2.03% margin. In fiscal Q2 2025, the quarter ended 2025-06-30, revenue was $654.8 million and net income was $9.4 million, so the top line and latest profit improved. But step back to full-year filings: fiscal 2023 net income was $60.7 million on $1.4 billion of revenue; fiscal 2024 was $43.1 million on $2.0 billion; fiscal 2025 was $22.5 million on $3.2 billion. That is shrinking profit as revenue grows, which FairStock's Lynch classification captures as a SLOW GROWER — Shrinking, with profit down about 9.8% a year over five years and revenue up 35.9%. The balance sheet reflects leverage: debt-to-equity 1.64, Altman Z-Score 1.53, ROE 6.90%, ROCE 3.76%. Those are not the numbers of a wide-moat, high-return compounder. Free cash flow is real at $94.4 million trailing, a 4.5% FCF yield, but thin margins leave little cushion. On valuation, at the $37.87 close on 2026-10-13, FairStock's P/E is 46.18 and P/B is 2.25. Its Graham Number is $17.64, so the price is far above asset- and earnings-based value, with margin of safety -114.68%. EV/EBITDA is 14.12. The PEG ratio of 0.42 and Piotroski F-Score 6/9 offer some hope, but I prefer good businesses at fair prices. Here I see a fair-to-speculative business at a demanding price.

In plain English: Astrana Health runs doctor groups and care coordination services for patients and health plans. Sales have grown quickly, but profits are thin and have not kept up over the full years, and the company uses a fair amount of debt. At the recent close, the stock looks expensive versus the earnings and accounting value the company reports.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer