Astrana Health Inc. Common Stock (ASTH)

FairStock Score: 46/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

Strengths

• Generates $228 million in annual free cash flow (12.3% yield on market cap)
• Revenue growth of 42.9% demonstrates strong top-line momentum

Concerns

• Trades significantly above Graham Number ($13) with negative 158% margin of safety—limited downside protection
• Altman Z-Score of 1.5 places it in the financial distress zone—elevated bankruptcy risk

AI Analysis

Astrana Health Inc. Common Stock is a micro-cap healthcare company valued at $1.8 billion. The business generates $3.2 billion in annual revenue with a 0.2% net margin and $228 million in free cash flow. From a quality standpoint, Astrana shows solid Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 and distressed Altman Z-Score of 1.5 warrants caution. On valuation, the stock is commanding a steep 71.6x multiple, with trades far above its Graham Number ($13) with no margin of safety. Growth dynamics show revenue growing at 42.9% and profit growth of 186.3%. Our composite FairStock Score of 46/100 reflects mixed fundamentals overall. Investors should weigh the business quality against the current price and their own margin of safety requirements.

Bull Case

Astrana's 43% revenue growth trajectory could accelerate as it captures additional market share in the healthcare sector. With $228 million in annual free cash flow (12.3% yield), management has ample capital for buybacks, dividends, or accretive acquisitions.

Bear Case

At 72x earnings, any growth disappointment triggers rapid multiple compression—a 20% earnings miss plus multiple contraction to 20x implies 40%+ downside. Regulatory changes, input cost inflation, or demand normalization represent underappreciated risks that could materially impact forward estimates.

Data from SEC filings. AI analysis is for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Scoring methodology · Disclaimer