ARKO Corp. Common Stock (ARKO)

FairStock Score: 33/100 — RISKY

Key Financials

Strengths

• Generates $36 million in annual free cash flow (4.9% yield on market cap)

Concerns

• Trades significantly above Graham Number ($3) with negative 96% margin of safety—limited downside protection
• High leverage at 7.02x debt-to-equity increases financial risk and interest expense burden
• Revenue declining at 9.9% year-over-year signals potential demand weakness or market share loss
• Altman Z-Score of 0.8 places it in the financial distress zone—elevated bankruptcy risk

AI Analysis

ARKO Corp. Common Stock is a micro-cap consumer cyclical company valued at $735 million. The business generates $6.5 billion in annual revenue with a 0.0% net margin and $36 million in free cash flow. From a quality standpoint, ARKO shows solid Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 and distressed Altman Z-Score of 0.8 warrants caution. On valuation, the stock is commanding a steep 43.6x multiple, with trades above its Graham Number with a negative 96% margin. Growth dynamics show revenue growing at -9.9% and profit growth of 180.9%. The 1.9% dividend yield adds an income component for patient holders. Our composite FairStock Score of 33/100 reflects below-average fundamentals overall. Investors should weigh the business quality against the current price and their own margin of safety requirements.

Bull Case

Improving fundamentals and sector tailwinds could drive meaningful earnings growth, compressing the effective multiple for patient investors. With $36 million in annual free cash flow (4.9% yield), management has ample capital for buybacks, dividends, or accretive acquisitions.

Bear Case

At 44x earnings, any growth disappointment triggers rapid multiple compression—a 20% earnings miss plus multiple contraction to 20x implies 40%+ downside. Regulatory changes, input cost inflation, or demand normalization represent underappreciated risks that could materially impact forward estimates.

Data from SEC filings. AI analysis is for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Scoring methodology · Disclaimer