Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI)

FairStock Score: 45/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I see Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance as a commercial mortgage lender dressed as a REIT, and lenders rarely have a durable moat. The record is uneven: FY2024, filed, produced a net loss of $119.6M and diluted EPS of -$0.97, while FY2025, filed, earned $126.7M and $0.81 per diluted share; FY2023 earned $58.1M, or $0.29. In fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, filed revenue was $44.4M, net income $25.8M, and diluted EPS $0.11. FairStock's Lynch category is TURNAROUND because it returned to profit after a loss within the last three years. Revenue in FY2025 ($271.6M) was below FY2024 ($303.7M), so I would not call the trajectory robust. At the 2026-10-26 close of $6.60, FairStock shows P/E 8.25, P/B 0.67, ROE 8.51%, ROCE 2.21%, D/E 0.30, dividend yield 15.58%, beta 1.45, a 45/100 score, Piotroski 6/9, and PEG 0.33. The price looks cheap against reported earnings and book, but a 15.58% yield and 1.45 beta tell me the market is pricing credit and dividend risk. I would want CET1, NIM, or combined ratio, but those are not in the data; for this lender I would focus on loan marks, non-accruals, book value, and funding. The discount to book is only a bargain if underwriting losses are contained; otherwise it is a value trap. This is a show-me situation, not a high-quality compounder.

In plain English: The company lends money to owners and developers of commercial property and is set up to pass most of its taxable income to shareholders. It has returned to profit after a loss, but revenue has been shrinking and the shares trade well below the value of its assets on the books while paying a very large dividend. At $6.60, the price looks cheap against reported earnings and assets, but the lending business carries real credit risk.

The full AI analysis, bull and bear case and key monitorables are in FairStock Pro.

Data as of 2026-10-26 close · note generated 2026-10-28 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer