Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. Ordinary Shares (AMBP)

FairStock Score: 38/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

At $4.34 on 2026-10-13, Ardagh Metal Packaging has a market value of $2.4B. I look for businesses that earn high returns on capital and have durable pricing power. This can maker serves beverage producers, but the latest reported quarter, fiscal Q2 2026, showed $1.7B of revenue and only $35.0M of net income, a 2.04% margin. That is a tough, capital-intensive business. FairStock's calculated ROCE is 3.49%, far below what I want. The data set shows revenue growth of 17.73% and profit growth of 600%, but the profit gain starts from a very low base and EPS is only $0.05. FairStock's P/E is 86.80, so the 2026-10-13 price is expensive relative to accounting earnings. The trailing free cash flow is $297.0M, a 12.3% FCF yield, and the dividend yield is 9.22%. Cash generation is the strongest part of the story, but the dividend is not covered by $0.05 EPS. The Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 is encouraging, yet the Altman Z-Score of 0.36 signals distress risk. EV/EBITDA is 10.21, not a bargain for a low-margin supplier. FairStock Score is 38/100, and no Lynch category exists because there are not three years of filed results. Beta is 0.53, so the shares have been less volatile than the market. Overall, I see a cyclical, low-margin packaging company with good cash flow but weak earnings quality and an unclear margin of safety.

In plain English: Ardagh Metal Packaging makes metal drink cans for beverage companies in Europe, North America, and Brazil. The business generates a lot of cash and pays a big dividend, but profit margins are very thin and reported earnings are tiny compared with the share price. At $4.34, the stock looks expensive based on earnings, though cash flow gives it some support.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer