Alaska Air Group Inc. Common Stock (ALK)

FairStock Score: 13/100 — RISKY

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I approach airlines with caution because they are capital-intensive, cyclical businesses where a route network is not a durable moat. Alaska Air Group has an established route network through Alaska, Hawaiian, and Regional segments, but the numbers show the industry's boom-bust pattern. In fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $4.1B, yet net income was -$76.0M and diluted EPS was -$0.68. The prior quarter, fiscal Q1 2026 ended 2026-03-31, was worse: net income -$193.0M and diluted EPS -$1.69. That follows fiscal Q2 2025 ended 2025-06-30, when net income was $172.0M and EPS $1.42. For fiscal 2025, year ended 2025-12-31, revenue was $14.2B, net income $100.0M, and EPS $0.83, down sharply from fiscal 2024 net income of $395.0M and EPS $3.08. Financial health is not comforting. The debt-to-equity ratio is 2.08, trailing free cash flow is -$350.0M, and the FCF yield is -8.3% based on FairStock calculations at the 2026-10-13 close. FairStock's Altman Z-Score of 0.45 suggests real financial stress. On the positive side, FairStock's Piotroski is 6/9 and P/B is 1.15, so the $37.81 price is not wildly expensive relative to book value. But a negative P/E, negative ROCE of -0.09%, and FairStock score of 13/100 tell me earnings quality and returns are poor. Until the company can convert revenue growth into consistent profits and positive cash flow, there is no clear margin of safety.

In plain English: Alaska Air Group runs Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines and regional flights. Revenue is growing, but the company lost money in recent reported quarters and carries a lot of debt. At $37.81, the shares trade near their accounting value, but with losses and negative cash flow, the price looks more speculative than clearly cheap.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer