Assured Guaranty Ltd. Common Stock (AGO)

FairStock Score: 82/100 — HIGH CONVICTION

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

As a value investor, I look first at what I am buying and what I am paying. Assured Guaranty is a specialty financial guarantor: it insures public-finance and structured-finance debt, so its fortunes depend on underwriting discipline and credit losses. The business is not a wide-moat compounder in the Coca-Cola sense; it is a capital-intensive, cyclical underwriter with 367 employees and a long tail of credit risk. The numbers show the lumpiness. FY2025 net income was $503.0M and diluted EPS $10.26, up from FY2024 net income $376.0M and EPS $6.87, but far below FY2023 net income $739.0M and EPS $12.30. In fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $195.0M, net income $39.0M and diluted EPS $0.88, down sharply from fiscal Q2 2025, when revenue was $281.0M, net income $103.0M and EPS $2.08. At the 2026-10-13 close of $69.68, FairStock calculates a P/E of 9.27 and P/B of 0.55, so the market is pricing in trouble or poor returns. FairStock's ROE is only 6.67% and ROCE 1.58%, with D/E 0.31. The FairStock Score is 82/100, but Piotroski is 4/9, and its Lynch category is SLOW GROWER, with profit compounding about 6.8% a year over five years. A low beta of 0.72 and 2.16% dividend yield add some defense. The key question is whether book value is real and credit reserves are adequate. CET1, NIM and combined ratio are not in the data, so I cannot fully judge bank-like capital or underwriting ratios. I would require a margin of safety for the credit cycle.

In plain English: Assured Guaranty sells insurance that protects bondholders if certain debts default, mostly in public finance. The business is profitable, but earnings are uneven and the latest quarter was much weaker than a year earlier. At the recent price, the stock looks cheap compared with its accounting value and profits, though the returns it earns on its capital are modest.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer