Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP)

FairStock Score: 26/100 — RISKY

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I approach Advance Auto Parts as a possible turnaround, not a wide-moat compounder. It sells aftermarket parts—batteries, brakes, belts—to drivers and repair shops, a business that can be sticky but is competitive and cyclical. The filed record is uneven. In fiscal 2024, the year ended 2024-12-28, revenue was $9.1B and net income was a loss of $336M, or diluted EPS of -$5.61. In fiscal 2025, the year ended 2026-01-03, revenue fell to $8.6B, but net income returned to $44M, or diluted EPS of $0.73; FairStock labels this a TURNAROUND. More recently, fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-07-18, showed revenue of $2.0B, net income of $55M, and diluted EPS of $0.90, up from net income of $15M and diluted EPS of $0.25 in fiscal Q2 2025, the quarter ended 2025-07-12. Still, financial health is not sturdy. FairStock calculates ROE of 4.89%, ROCE of 2.07%, debt-to-equity of 2.49, an Altman Z-Score of 1.16, and free cash flow of only $23M, a 0.9% FCF yield. At the 2026-10-13 close of $41.88, FairStock shows a P/E of 23.40, P/B of 1.11, and a Graham Number of $38.82, leaving a negative margin of safety of -7.88%. The Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 is encouraging, and EV/EBITDA of 7.82 is not demanding. I see improving profits but weak returns on capital and a price that already reflects much of the recovery.

In plain English: Advance Auto Parts sells car parts, batteries and other repair items to drivers and mechanics. The business looks weak overall: sales have slipped and profit margins are thin, though it has recently returned to profit. At the recent price of $41.88, the shares look a little expensive compared with the company's earnings and net assets, and they trade above one simple estimate of value based on its financials.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-07-18) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-04-25) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-10-04) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-07-12) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2026-01-03) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-28) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-30)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer