Alcoa Corporation Common Stock (AA)

FairStock Score: 53/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

As a Graham-style investor, I start with the balance sheet and the price. Alcoa is a cyclical commodity producer of bauxite, alumina, and aluminum. It has scale and integration, but it is largely a price-taker, so its moat is limited. The turnaround is real. In fiscal 2023, filed figures show revenue of $10.6B, a net loss of $651.0M, and diluted EPS of -$3.65. By fiscal 2025, revenue was $12.8B, net income $1.2B, and diluted EPS $4.37. In fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $4.0B, net income $407.0M, and diluted EPS $1.53, versus fiscal Q2 2025, the quarter ended 2025-06-30, revenue of $3.0B, net income of $164.0M, and EPS of $0.62. That is a powerful recovery. At the 2026-10-13 close of $41.49, FairStock calculations show P/E 8.63, P/B 1.49, ROE 18.23%, ROCE 6.49%, and debt-to-equity 0.30. The Graham Number is $54.98, implying a 24.54% margin of safety, and Piotroski is 7/9. But Altman Z is 1.26, which warns of financial risk, and FCF yield is only 3.2%. The stock is far below its 52-week high of $84.38, and beta is 1.63. PEG 0.06 looks very low, but it rests on a rebound from a loss year. This is a statistically cheap turnaround, not a fortress franchise.

In plain English: Alcoa mines bauxite, refines alumina, and makes aluminum. The business has swung back to solid profits after a money-losing year, and the latest quarter showed much higher sales and earnings than a year earlier. At $41.49, the price looks cheaper than the company's current profits and asset value suggest, but aluminum prices and financial risk still make it a bumpy business.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer