US Tariff Risk Clouds Indian IT & Pharma Rally

US Tariff Overhang Hits Export Sectors Amid Global Gains Cast your mind back to 2018. TCS had just crossed $100 billion in market cap. Infosys was rebuilding investor trust after a bruising boardroom crisis. Indian IT looked untouchable. Then the US-China trade war started rewriting the rules for global supply chains, and Indian exporters spent the next two years navigating collateral damage they hadn't seen coming. History may be rhyming again. On Wednesday, European indices and the Dow Jones closed firmly higher — the Dow adding 276 points — giving Indian bulls enough reason to open their trading terminals with some optimism. But underneath that headline, a structural risk is quietly building. A proposed US tariff increase on Indian goods, tied to India's continued procurement of Russian crude, could reshape the earnings calculus for some of the country's biggest export earners. This isn't noise. It deserves serious attention. The US tariff threat isn't a blanket measure — it's targeted, and that targeting matters enormously for stock selection. IT services, pharmaceuticals, textiles, and specialty chemicals collectively account for a significant share of India's goods and services exports to the US. For companies like [TCS](/stock/TCS) (NSE: TCS) and [Infosys](/stock/INFY) (NSE: INFY), direct goods tariffs are less of a concern than the secondary effects: client budget freezes, delayed discretionary tech spend, and a stronger narrative for clients to renegotiate contracts. That's the real margin risk. Pharma Earnings Could Feel the Squeeze First Pharma is where the numbers get uncomfortable fast. The US is the single largest market for Indian generic drug makers, accounting for roughly 30% of sector revenue for mid-to-large players. [Aurobindo Pharma](/stock/AUROPHARMA) (NSE: AUROPHARMA) generates approximately 43% of its consolidated revenue from North America. [Divi's Laboratories](/stock/DIVISLAB) (NSE: DIVISLAB), while more API-focused and therefore slig...