RBI Surplus ₹2.86L Cr: Capex Stocks to Watch

RBI's Record Transfer Puts Capex Stocks in Play The Reserve Bank of India transferred ₹2.86 lakh crore in surplus to the Government of India for FY2025-26, confirmed on May 23, 2025. That's a sharp jump from the ₹2.11 lakh crore transferred in FY2024-25, a year-on-year increase of roughly 35.5%. The windfall comes from higher interest income on foreign currency assets and gains from dollar sales during periods of rupee volatility. For investors tracking RBI surplus capex plays, the number matters less as a headline and more as a fiscal signal. The government's FY26 budget had pencilled in a fiscal deficit target of 4.4% of GDP. This transfer, if deployed strategically, could either compress that number further or free up budgetary space for spending that was previously constrained. Neither outcome is automatically bullish or bearish for equities. It depends entirely on where the money goes. Markets are currently pricing in a mix: partial deficit reduction and partial acceleration of the ₹11.11 lakh crore capex budget already announced for FY26. Three scenarios are in play. First, the government uses the surplus primarily to retire debt, which is fiscally conservative and bond-market positive but doesn't directly lift order books in capital goods. Second, it front-loads infrastructure capex in Q1-Q2 FY26, which would directly benefit EPC companies and PSU contractors. Third, and the most likely given election-cycle dynamics in several states, it splits the allocation between consolidation and targeted spending in power, railways, and road infrastructure. Sector Breakdown: Which Stocks Have the Most to Gain [Larsen & Toubro](/stock/LT) (NSE: LT) is the clearest beneficiary if government capex accelerates. L&T's order book stood at ₹5.67 lakh crore as of Q3 FY25, with nearly 48% coming from domestic infrastructure and hydrocarbon projects. Any uptick in central government project awards, particularly in urban infrastructure, water, and defence, flows directly into...