India Portfolio Rejig: Bernstein & Macquarie Bet Big

India Portfolio Rejig: Bernstein and Macquarie Signal a Risk-Off Reversal West Asia geopolitical tensions have been a quiet tax on Indian equity valuations for the better part of 2024-25. That tax is now being lifted. Bernstein and Macquarie have both rebalanced their India equity model portfolios in recent weeks, cutting defensive cash positions and adding exposure to sectors that bore the brunt of regional risk premiums — specifically defence, oil & gas, and downstream energy. The timing is deliberate. It's not just a macro call; it's a seasonal one too, with the Sensex historically averaging gains of roughly 3-4% in July over the past decade, one of its stronger months by seasonal pattern. The core thesis here is straightforward: when crude supply disruption risk recedes, Indian energy importers breathe easier, fiscal math on fuel subsidies improves, and the current account deficit outlook stabilises. Brent crude has pulled back from the $90+ levels seen during peak tensions to the mid-$70s range. For an economy that imports roughly 85% of its crude requirements, that's a material shift in the macroeconomic backdrop — and it flows directly into earnings revisions for refining and marketing companies. Both brokerages appear to be positioning ahead of Q1 FY26 earnings season, where energy and defence names could see estimates revised upward. That's the real signal in this portfolio action. It's not passive rebalancing. It's a forward earnings bet. Defence Stocks: HAL and BEL Face a Re-Rating Catalyst Defence was caught in an unusual crossfire during the West Asia flare-up. On one hand, regional instability should theoretically be a tailwind for defence names. On the other, risk-off sentiment hit broader emerging market allocations, compressing multiples across the board. [Hindustan Aeronautics Limited](/stock/HAL) (NSE: HAL) and [Bharat Electronics Limited](/stock/BEL) (NSE: BEL) both underperformed their intrinsic earnings trajectory during this period. HAL ...